Vol. 17, issue 05-06, article # 20

Abstract:

For a given local region of the Northern Hemisphere, a dynamical probabilistic modeling is used to construct a local climate ensemble of six-hour spatiotemporal realizations of the fields of meteorological quantities. This ensemble is matched with the corresponding background regional climate ensemble using a variational method of information assimilation. For construction of ensemble of realizations, a combined statistical/hydrodynamic modeling is used involving real information on the statistical structure of the corresponding fields of meteorological variables. Based on this ensemble, we propose a multistep method of climate modeling.