Optika Atmosfery i Okeana Journal

Vol. 8, issue 07, article # 2

Komarov V. S., Kreminskii A. V. Optimal combination of alternative methods for spatial forecasting in problems of atmospheric ecological monitoring. II. Results of numerical experiments. // Atmospheric and oceanic optics. 1995. V. 8. No. 07. P. 958. PDF
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Abstract:

This paper presents some results of numerical experiments on the estimation of the quality of spatial forecasting of vertical profiles of temperature and wind, carried out using the optimal combination of alternative methods (polynomial approximation, optimal extrapolation, and modified method of a clustering of arguments (MMCA)) as well as the data of aerological observations obtained for typical mesometeorological polygon. We exemplify that high precision of the forecast is typical for an algorithm based on the optimal combination of the method of optimal extrapolation and a modified version of the method of clustering of arguments. Insignificant errors resulted in this case allow its wide application in diagnosis and forecast of the atmospheric pollution level in the regions where no aerological data are available.