Vol. 27, issue 02, article # 9

Dvoretskaya I. V., Kruchenitskii G. M., Matvienko G. G., Stanevich I. I. Astronomic factors in the long-term evolution of the Earth’s climate. // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. 2014. V. 27. No. 02. P. 139–149 [in Russian].
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Abstract:

The concept of the dependence of observed global climatic changes on anthropogenic factors is analyzed. The limitations of modern approaches to global climate modeling are shown to be unremovable, which makes it impossible to arrive at grounded enough conclusions and predictions. An alternative parameter-reduced energy balance model of the global temperature is proposed, and the relative contribution of basic greenhouse gases to global temperature variability is estimated based on this model. A list of factors, including astronomic ones, to be additionally allowed for in analyzing and diagnosing the observed long-term changes in the mean global temperature is substantiated.

Keywords:

climate, global warming, dynamic modeling, relative greenhouse gas efficiency, tidal effects, Earth’s orbit degeneration

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