Vol. 26, issue 12, article # 11

Аntokhin P. N., Belan B. D., Savkin D. E., Tolmachev G. N. The comparison of different methods of statistical prediction of diurnal dynamics in the ground ozone concentration. // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. 2013. V. 26. No. 12. P. 1082–1089 [in Russian].
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Abstract:

Оn the basis of long series of observations obtained at TOR-station at the Tomsk Akademgorodok, an empirical model for prediction of average daily ozone concentrations is developed based on a multilayer neural network. A comparison with models based on multiple linear regression and autoregression was conducted. The method of neural network approach turned out to be the most successful among all others. It gives a possibility to describe 70% of the total variance and the average value of 50% of the variance of the standard deviation. In this case, the value of the mean square prediction error does not exceed the instrumental error of measurements.

Keywords:

atmosphere, ozone, modeling, prediction

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