Vol. 32, issue 04, article # 9

Soldatenko S.A., Yusupov R.M. Model for estimating the transient response of the global mean surface temperature to changes in the concentrations of atmospheric aerosols and radiatively-active gases. // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. 2019. V. 32. No. 04. P. 309–316 [in Russian].
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Abstract:

A two-component energy-balance climate model (EBM) is considered, which allows estimating the transient response of the global mean surface temperature (i.e. the Earth climate system response) to radiative forcing due to atmospheric aerosols and radiatively-active gases in accordance with the specified scenarios of their atmospheric content. An expression for the impulse response function of EBM is analytically derived. The response of the climate system to arbitrary external radiative forcing is calculated as a convolution of two functions – an impulse response function and a function describing the radiative forcing. The comparative analysis of the results of numerical calculations performed for two idealized scenarios of radiative forcing (step-function and linearly increasing radiative perturbation) and the exact solution obtained analytically demonstrates a fairly high accuracy of the method. Using the impulse response function, the response of the global mean surface temperature was estimated to radiation forcing given in accordance with several scenarios of an increase in the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (four scenarios of the RCP family) and volcanic aerosol (eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in 1991). Since the method for estimating the transient climate response to radiative forcing, considered in this work, is quite accurate and computationally inexpensive, it can be used as an express analysis tool for estimating the climate system response to arbitrary radiation perturbation caused by natural and anthropogenic aerosols as well as radiatively-active gases including greenhouse gases.

Keywords:

climate change, global warming, impulse response function, transient climate response, stratospheric aerosols

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