Optika Atmosfery i Okeana Journal

Vol. 9, issue 04, article # 13

Komarov V. S., Isaev A. A., Sherstyukov B. G. Methodology for forecasting the city mesoclimate as applied to criterial estimates of the cold period. // Atmospheric and oceanic optics. 1996. V. 9. No. 04. P. 316-320. PDF
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Abstract:

In this paper we consider the methodology for modeling and forecasting the temporal run of the climatic characteristics (beginning, end, duration, and mean temperature) of the cold period with a year-term forecast. The spectral analysis and the method of multiple cyclicity form the basis of this methodology. The performance of this technique being evaluated showed that forecasts are borne out in 70% of cases.