Vol. 32, issue 12, article # 1

Gruzdev A. N., Isakov A. A., Anikin P. P. Long-term trends in mass concentration of near-surface aerosol at Zvenigorod Research Station of A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences. // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. 2019. V. 32. No. 12. P. 957–964. DOI: 10.15372/AOO20191201 [in Russian].
Copy the reference to clipboard

Abstract:

Estimates of seasonally dependent long-term trends in the mass concentration of near-surface aerosol based on the measurements at Zvenigorod Research Station of A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, in 1991–2018 are presented. The analysis was performed by the method of multiple linear regression taking into account data autocorrelation on long time scales. Statistically significant negative spring and summer trends were derived for 1991–2002 and 2013–2018, respectively; possible causes of the trends are discussed.

Keywords:

aerosol, mass concentration, linear trend, multiple linear regression, autocorrelation of data

References:

  1. Yoon J., von Hoyningen-Huene W., Vountas M., Burrows J.P. Analysis of linear long-term trend of aerosol optical thickness derived from SeaWiFS using BAER over Europe and South China // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2011. V. 11. P. 12149–12167.
  2. de Meij A., Pozzer A., Lelieveld J. Trend analysis in aerosol optical depths and pollutant emission estimates between 2000 and 2009 // Atmos. Environ. 2012. V. 51. P. 75–85.
  3. Zhao B., Jiang J.H., Gu Y., Diner D., Worden J., Liou K.-N., Su H., Xing J., Garay M.. Huang L. Decadal-scale trends in regional aerosol particle properties and their linkage to emission changes // Environ. Res. Lett. 2017. V. 12. URL: https://doi.org/10.1088/ 1748-9326/aa6cb2 (last access: 5.06.2019).
  4. Barmpadimos I., Hueglin C., Keller J., Henne S., Prévôt A.S.H. Influence of meteorology on PM10 trends and variability in Switzerland from 1991 to 2008 // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2011. V. 11. P. 1813–1835.
  5. Barmpadimos I, Keller J., Oderbolz D., Hueglin C., Prévôt A.S.H. One decade of parallel fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10–PM2.5) particulate matter measurements in Europe: Trends and variability // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2012. V. 12. P. 3189–3203.
  6. Cusack M., Alastuey A., Pérez A., Pey J., Querol X. Trends of particulate matter (PM2.5) and chemical composition at a regional background site in the Western Mediterranean over the last nine years (2002–2010) // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2012. V. 12. P. 8341–8357.
  7. Cerro J.C., Cerd V., Pey J. Trends of air pollution in the Western Mediterranean Basin from a 13-year database: A research considering regional, suburban and urban environments in Mallorca (Balearic Islands) // Atmos. Environ. 2015. V. 103. P. 138–146.
  8. Bigi A., Ghermandi G. Long-term trend and variability of atmospheric PM10 concentration in the Po Valley // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2014. V. 14. P. 4895–4907.
  9. Bigi A., Ghermandi G. Trends and variability of atmospheric PM2.5 and PM10 concentration in the Po Valley, Italy // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2016. V. 16. P. 15777–15788.
  10. Wang K.C., Dickinson R.E., Su L., Trenberth K.E. Contrasting trends of mass and optical properties of aerosols over the Northern Hemisphere from 1992 to 2011 // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2012. V. 12. P. 9387–9398.
  11. Lin C.Q., Liu G., Lau A.K.H., Li Y., Li C.C., Fung J.C.H., Lao X.Q. High-resolution satellite remote sensing of provincial PM2.5 trends in China from 2001 to 2015 // Atmos. Environ. 2018. V. 180. P. 110–116.
  12. Ahmed E., Kim K.-H., Shon Z.-H., Song S.-K. Long-term trend of airborne particulate matter in Seoul, Korea from 2004 to 2013 // Atmos. Environ. 2015. V. 101. P. 125–133.
  13. Kozlov V.S., Panchenko M.V., Yausheva E.P. Vremennaya izmenchivost' soderzhaniya submikronnogo aerozolya i sazhi v prizemnom sloe atmosfery Zapadnoj Sibiri // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2007. V. 20, N 12. P. 1082–1085.
  14. Yausheva E.P., Kozlov V.S., Panchenko M.V., Shmargunov V.P. Long-term variability of aerosol and black carbon concentrations in the atmospheric surface layer as results of 20-year measurements at the IAO Aerosol Station // Proc. SPIE. 2017. V. 10466. P. 1046631. DOI: 10.1117/12.2287375.
  15. Sidorov V.N. Sezonnyj i sutochnyj hod soderzhaniya suhoj fraktsii submikronnogo aerozolya v prizemnom sloe // Tr. konf. «Fizika atmosfernogo aerozolya». M.: Dialog MGU, 1999. P. 356–367.
  16. Isakov A.A., Begunov S.L., Golovyatinskij S.A., Tihonov A.V. Spektropolyarimetricheskie issledovaniya naturnogo aerozolya. // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 1999. V. 12, N 6. P. 556–561.
  17. Isakov A.A., Gruzdev A.N., Tihonov A.V. O dolgoperiodnyh variatsiyah opticheskih i mikrofizicheskih parametrov prizemnogo aerozolya // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2005. V. 18, N 5–6. P. 393–399.
  18. Isakov A.A., Gruzdev A.N. Dolgoperiodnye variatsii opticheskih i mikrofizicheskih parametrov prizemnogo aerozolya na Zvenigorodskoj nauchnoj stantsii // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2009. V. 45, N 2. P. 245–254.
  19. Gruzdev A.N., Isakov A.A. O prirode dolgoperiodnyh variatsij massovoj kontsentratsii prizemnogo aerozolya // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2015. V. 28, N 9. P. 810–815; Gruzdev А.N., Isakov А.А. On the nature of long-period variations in mass concentration of near-ground aerosol // Atmos. Ocean. Opt. 2016. V. 29, N 1. P. 73–78.
  20. Gruzdev A.N. Analiz nedel'noj tsiklichnosti v atmosfere moskovskogo regiona // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2013. V. 49, N 2. P. 153–164.
  21. Beran J. Statistics for long memory processes. New York: Chapman & Hall, 1994. 315 p.
  22. Gruzdev A.N. Uchet avtokorrelyatsii v zadache linejnoj regressii na primere analiza obshchego soderzhaniya NO2 v atmosfere // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2019. V. 55, N 1. P. 73–82.
  23. Gruzdev A.N. Accounting for long-term serial correlation in a linear regression problem // IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. 2019. V. 231. 012021. P. 1–10. DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/231/1/012021. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/231/1/012020/meta.
  24. Gruzdev A.N., Bezverhnij V.A. Kvazidvuhletnie variatsii ozona i meteoparametrov nad Zapadnoj Evropoj po dannym ozonnogo zondirovaniya // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2006. V. 42, N 2. P. 224–236.
  25. Laothawornkitku J., Taylor J.E., Paul N.D., Hewitt C.N. Biogenic volatile organic compounds in the Earth system // New Phytolt. 2009. V. 183. P. 27–51.
  26. Daellenbach K.R., Stefenelli G., Bozzetti C., Vlachou A., Fermo P., Gonzalez R., Piazzalunga A., Colombi C., Canonaco F., Hueglin C., Kasper-Gieb A., Jaffrezo J.-L., Bianchi F., Slowik J.G., Baltensperger U., El Haddad I., Prévôt A.S.H. Long-term chemical analysis and organic aerosol source apportionment at nine sites in central Europe: Source identification and uncertainty assessment // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2017. V. 17. P. 13265–13282.
  27. Timkovskij I.I., Elanskij N.F., Skorohod A.I., Shumskij R.A. Issledovanie biogennyh letuchih organicheskih soedinenij nad territoriej Russia // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2010. V. 46, N 3. P. 347–356.