A concept of environmental forecasting is presented. It is based on variational principles. This concept, unlike others, is built on risk and vulnerability assessment with respect to man-made influences. It allows one to estimate the effects of uncertainties on the quality of the forecast. Implementation of the concept is connected with solutions of the direct, adjoint, and inverse problems for mathematical models of hydrodynamics, transport and transformation of substances and calculations of sensitivity relations for the functionals of atmospheric quality. Advantage of the proposed concept as compared with traditional prognostic technology is discussed.
environmental forecasting, atmospheric quality, variational principles, risk, vulnerability, inverse problems