Vol. 32, issue 01, article # 9

Kalinin N.A., Shikhov A.N., Bykov A.V., Azhigov I.O. Conditions of occurrence and short-term forecast of strong squalls and tornadoes in European Russia. // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. 2019. V. 32. No. 01. P. 62-69 [in Russian].
Copy the reference to clipboard
Abstract:

Strong squalls and several tornadoes occurred in European Russia on May 30, 2018, and caused significant damage. The data on the squalls were received from weather stations. The data on tornado events were updated from the analysis of satellite information about tornado-induced forest damage. We describe synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments and possibilities of short-term forecast of severe weather outbreaks. The mesoscale simulation is carried out in the WRF model version 3.9.1.1 (3 km resolution) with data of GFS/NCEP and ECMWF ERA-5 global atmospheric models as initial conditions. The strong squalls are simulated with a satisfactory reliability. It is found that the reliability of the WRF model forecast is significantly higher when using ECMWF ERA-5 data.

Keywords:

squalls, tornadoes, synoptic-scale environments, mesoscale simulation, WRF model, GFS data, ECMWF data

Figures:
References:

    1. Alekseeva A.A., Vasil'ev E.V., Bukharov M.V. Prognoz sil'nykh shkvalov na evropeyskoy territorii Rossii i ikh identifikatsiya doplerovskimi radiolokatorami // Tr. Gidromet. Russia. 2017. N 363. P. 47–64.
   2. Vasil'ev E.V. Usloviya vozniknoveniya i kratkosrochnyy prognoz sil'nykh shkvalov na evropeyskoy territorii Rossii: Avtoref. dis. … kand. geogr. nauk. M.: Gidromettsentr Russia, 2009. 25 p.
   3. Dmitrieva T.G., Peskov B.E. Sinopticheskie usloviya, naukasting i model'nye prognozy sil'nykh shkvalov i smerchey v Bashkirii 1 june 2007 year i 29 august 2014 year. // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2016. N 10. P. 16–29.
   4. Kalinin N.A., Bykov A.V., Pishchal'nikova E.V., Shikhov A.N. Analiz usloviy vozniknoveniya sil'nykh shkvalov v Permskom krae po dannym nablyudeniy i rezul'tatam chislennogo modelirovaniya // Gidrometeorol. issled. i prognozy. 2018. N 2 (368). P. 7–27.
   5. Dmitrieva T.G., Bukharov M.V., Peskov B.E. Analiz usloviy vozniknoveniya sil'nykh shkvalov po sputnikovoy i prognosticheskoy informatsii // Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz Kosmosa. 2011. V. 8, N 3. P. 244–250.
   6. Dmitrieva T.G., Peskov B.E. Chislennyy prognoz s mezosinopticheskim utochneniem dvukh sluchaev osobo sil'nykh shkvalov na evropeyskoy chasti Russia summer 2010 year. // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2013. N 2. P. 18–30.
   7. Kalinin N.A., Shikhov A.N., Bykov A.V. Prognoz mezomasshtabnykh konvektivnykh sistem na Urale s pomoshch'yu modeli WRF i dannykh distantsionnogo zondirovaniya // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2017. N 1. P. 16–28.
   8. URL: http://www.tvc.ru/news/show/id/138798 (data obrashcheniya: 8.09.2018).
   9. URL: https://rp5.ru/ (data obrashcheniya: 08.09.2018).
10. Shikhov A.N. Otsenka posledstviy stikhiynykh prirodnykh yavleniy dlya lesnykh resursov Permskogo kraya po mnogoletnim ryadam dannykh kosmicheskoy s"emki // Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz Kosmosa. 2014. V. 11, N 1. P. 21–30.
11. Shikhov A.N., Chernokulsky A.V. A satellite-derived climatology of unreported tornadoes in forested regions of northeast Europe // Remote Sens. Environ. 2018. V. 204. P. 553–567.
12. URL: https://eoportal.eumetsat.int/userMgmt/login.faces (дата обращения: 8.09.2018).
13. Powers J.G., Klemp J.B., Skamarock W.C., Davis C.A., Dudhia J., Gill D.O., Coen J.L., Gochis D.J., Ahmadov R., Peckham S.E., Grell G.A., Michalakes J., Trahan S., Benjamin S.G., Alexander C.R., Dimego G.J., Wei Wang, Schwartz C.S., Romine G.S., Zhiquan Liu, Snyder C., Fei Chen, Barlage M.J., Wei Yu, Duda M.G. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Overview, system efforts, and future directions // Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2017. V. 98. P. 1717–1737.
14. ERA5 data documentation. URL: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/CKB/ERA5+data+documentation (data obrashcheniya: 8.09.2018).
15. URL: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/ (data obrashcheniya: 08.09.2018).
16. Berezhnaya T.V., Golubev A.V., Parshina L.N. Anomal'nye gidrometeorologicheskie yavleniya na territorii Rossiyskoy Federatsii v may 2018 year. // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2018. N 9. P. 126–137.
17. Brooks H.E. Proximity soundings for severe convection for Europe and the United States from reanalysis data // Atmos. Res. 2009. V. 93. P. 546–553.
18. Groenemeijer P., van Delden A. Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands // Atmos. Res. 2007. V. 83. P. 473–487.
19. URL: http://interfax.ru/russia/615068 (дата обращения: 08.09.2018).
20. European Severe Weather Database. URL: http://www.eswd.eu (дата обращения: 8.09.2018).
21. Kurbatova M.M., Rubinshteyn K.G. Gibridnyy metod prognoza poryvov vetra // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2018. V. 31, N 7. P. 523–529.
22. Das M.K., Das S., Chowdhury M.A.M., Karmakar S. Simulation of tornado over Brahmanbaria on 22 March 2013 using Doppler weather radar and WRF model // Geomat., Nat. Haz. Risk. 2016. V. 7(5). P. 1577–1599.
 

Back